Thoughts Exchange
Our platform, "Thoughts Exchange", is designed to connect and engage with individuals from diverse backgrounds. Based in Hong Kong, we explore the latest developments, challenges, and opportunities in Hong Kong, China, and around the world. Through meaningful interactions with people from various walks of life, we aim to stimulate deeper reflection on teaching and research while fostering mutual growth. If you are interested in contributing articles or reaching out, please email us at ef@hksyu.edu.
「Thoughts Exchange」是我們與各界人士聯繫和互動的平台。我們立足香港，專注於探索香港、中國及世界各地的最新發展、挑戰和機遇。透過與各行各業互動，我們希望激發在教學和研究方面有更深入的思考，並促進共同成長。如有興趣投稿或交流，請電郵至 ef@hksyu.edu。
Authors: Kai-Yin Woo , Lin-Xuan Jia
Abstract: This paper mainly investigates the threshold cointegration and Granger-causality relationships between the CPI and PPI series in the selected countries for policymakers to effectively control inflation. We first applied the unit root test to ensure the integration order of all the series, and then both the linear Engle-Granger (EG) and the nonlinear Enders-Siklos (ES) cointegration tests for comparative analysis. Lastly, Granger causality tests are adopted in the momentum threshold vector error correction model (M-TVECM), which is used to estimate the different speeds of adjustment and explore the causal relationship between CPI and PPI in the selected countries. While the EG test cannot detect cointegration in almost all countries, the ES test with higher power when there is asymmetric adjustment, supports the cointegration relationship in Canada, Denmark, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Spain, and Uruguay. The evidence also supports the existence of asymmetric threshold adjustment in all cointegrated systems. In addition, the empirical results indicate that Granger causality in the M-TVECM can be classified into two categories. One kind is about CPI leading to PPI, including Spain only while another kind is about bidirectional causality between CPI and PPI for other countries in the M-TVECM.
Authors: Lee, Shu-kam., Shum, Paul Kwok-ching & Woo, Kai-yin
Abstract: The Chinese Government has promulgated the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) to increase trade flows and integrate goods markets between China and BRI countries. The validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) implies well-integrated goods markets, a precondition for further economic convergence, and the next stage of economic integration in factor, service, and financial markets. Our study aims to examine the validity of the PPP and the extent of goods market integration between China and selected BRI countries in Africa. Since the functional form of the cointegrating relationship may not be exact or linear, we adopt the nonparametric rank tests for analysis without prior knowledge and specification of the functional form. We also address the rank problems that occur in multivariate rank tests. Our empirical results provide strong evidence of an unrestricted PPP relationship with reasonably strong evidence of nonlinearity in the data. We also find that some African BRI countries have experienced goods market integration with China during the second-half period only. This indicates that the introduction of the BRI in 2013 and China's active involvement in African economic development through BRI projects are leading to enhanced goods market integration between China and Africa. The results indicate favorable prospects of closer economic cooperation in the factor, service, and financial markets to build a free trade area or common markets with BRI countries in Africa.
URI: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ise3.71
作者：李樹甘
摘要: 本文作者參加香港教育界國慶訪京暨專業交流團，在參訪和交流中更深刻了解到國家的歷史文化、創新科技、教育各領域的最新發展，對中國的歷史文化、科技創新和可持續發展有了新的體會。